In my last insight I reflected on how an organisation’s management of projects can increase risks. A second area where an organisation often introduces risk is the use of different processes and/or toolsets in different phases of a project. Both result in the “saw tooth” risk profile in the diagram. This can be further exacerbated when...
In an earlier musing (Project risks – Black Swans or Brown Cygnets?) I had a diagram showing a project’s risk profile over its lifecycle. The sloping line represented the number of risks. At the start of the project, when planning has only just started there are a lot of unknowns and hence a large number...
In my last posting I underpinned the need for executive support for risk management. Earlier this year I came across some great research undertaken by Drs Jon Whitty and Stephen Duffield (from USQ – University of Southern Queensland). They refer to their research as the SyLLK (Systemic Lessons Learned Knowledge) model. They also describe this...
In my last posting I used the term brown cygnets to describe unknown known project risks that, with a good project risk management system, could have been white swans (known unknowns). So, what drives a good risk management system? The underpinning requirement is having executive support. I recently had a colleague who wrote “I have encountered...
In my last post I suggested using project management as a potential way to manage unknown unknowns that were external to an organisation such as Covid 19. That was the suggestion for black swans that affect the whole organisation, but what about project specific black swans? The reality is that unknown unknowns within a project are...
I sometimes ask project/risk related people to tell me their current greatest challenge. It generates some interesting ideas. One recently was regarding how to deal with unknown unknowns such as Covid 19. For most organisations, other than those in public health (hopefully), Covid was not a risk. It was not on anyone’s radar. It was a...
Back in 1996 I was heavily involved in the New Southern Railway (now called the Airport link) working with (what was then) Rail Services. We undertook a series of workshops to assist with our tender submission. The data was held on spread sheets as in those days there were no other tools available. Over the...
Clients are often concerned about the accuracy of estimates and the derivation of contingency. The only 100% certainty is that the estimate and actual outturn costs will not be the same! The nature of an estimate often comprises items where the amount of information known is very good through to a complete guess. Similarly, contingency...
Shortly after the draft ISO31000 was released a worldwide group discussed some of its merits and weaknesses. One question asked was whether “objective” should be defined in the standard. As the standard defines risk as “the effect of uncertainty on objectives” this was an important question. There was a diversity of views but I suggest...
There are many techniques for identifying risks but we have found the most useful to be a Risk Breakdown Structure (RBS). The RBS is a framework that once developed can be used for risk management across an organisation from a project through to business up to strategic planning. (Basically any planned business activity with an objective.)...
